April 9, 2009
from LarouchePac Website
A continued low in solar activity, as
measured by the appearance of irregularities on the Sun’s surface
known as sunspots, may be responsible for the recent phase of
cooling experienced in many parts of the Northern Hemisphere. In the
opinion of many specialists, the downturn in solar activity likely
marks the beginning of a prolonged cooling period.
However, long-term studies of the
historical record have shown that when the minima in sunspot
activity extend beyond the average 11 years, significant declines in
temperatures on Earth are experienced. Regular records of sunspot
activity go back to the 17th century.
Since the beginning of the current year, sunspot counts have dropped even lower.
As of April 9, there were no sunspots on 89 of the year’s 99 days (90%).
Daily Sun, April 9, 2009: no sunspots
The approximately 11-year or Schwabe cycle, was discovered in the mid -1800’s by Heinrich Schwabe, a German astronomer and collaborator of Alexander Von Humboldt.
Schwabe saw that peaks of solar activity
were always followed by valleys of relative calm - a clockwork
pattern that has held true for more than 200 years. The association
between longer solar cycles and cooler climate was first
demonstrated in 1991 by two Danish researchers, Egil Friis-Christensen,
the Director of the Danish Space Center and Knud Lassen,
a solar scientist with the Danish Space Center, in a paper
published in Science.
This means that solar cycle 23 will be 13 years in length, and using the relationship that Archibald found, there would likely be a 1.0 to 1.5 degree Celsius (1.8 to 2.7 degree F) decline in temperature over the next solar cycle.
This possible temperature decrease may
not sound like much, but it is twice as large as the 0.6 degrees
Celsius increase in average global temperature during the 20th
century. (That small averaged warming trend was already eliminated
by the cooling that occurred in the decade since 1998.)
That solar cycle, numbered 4, was then followed by two very inactive solar cycles. During this time period there were reports of wide-scale crop failures and food shortages. If similar conditions occur after this present ongoing deep solar minimum, and there is a large drop in temperature due to an inactive Sun, the world could see further stress on the food supply.
Areas that had become available for
growing food during the recent short period of warming, may become
too cold again to grow food over the next two cycles.
On Jan. 22, 2008 senior scientist Khabibullo Abdusamatov, head of the Space Research Lab at the Pulkovo Observatory, said in an interview with RIA Novosti that,
Abdusamatov warned correctly, at the beginning of 2008, that global temperatures would drop slightly that year, rather than rise, due to unprecedentedly low solar radiation in the past 30 years, and would continue decreasing even if industrial emissions of carbon dioxide reach record levels.
According to Abdusamatov’s 2008 forecast:
Belittling the global warming scare, Abdusamatov pointed out:
Over a century of climatological studies has demonstrated that longer-term climate is driven by changes in the Earth’s orbital relationship to the Sun.
Over the past 2 million years, orbital
cycles lasting 20,000, 40,000 and 100,00 years have combined to
produce glaciations lasting from 100,000 to 200,000 years over the
northern hemisphere. The last glacial advance, which ended
approximately 12,000 years ago, covered North America down to the
latitude of New York and Chicago with a blanket of ice estimated to
be 1 to 2 miles thick.
A descent into a new Little Ice Age, triggered by such short-term variations in sunspot activity as are reported here, is thus a scientific likelihood. For a variety of reasons, the increase in carbon dioxide from human industrial activity has not been able to change the direction of climate dictated by the Sun’s output.
Carbon dioxide has been much exaggerated as a greenhouse gas.
It is not out of the question that the
coming Little Ice Age will mark the beginning of a prolonged
period of continental glaciation such as the Earth experienced for
the 100,000 years prior to the beginning of our current interglacial
about 12,000 to 14,000 years ago.
When mankind uses his creativity there
is no problem or challenge too great that cannot be solved.